Tournament analysis · Ocean Cup 6
Ocean Cup 6 Group Stage: Ships, Bans and Maps
55 group matches, 125 battles, 250 eight-ship lineups. What TFN’s teams sailed, banned and won with before the knockouts.
The Ocean Cup 6 group stage is over: 55 matches played over four weekends, plus 1 forfeit. Almost every team settled on the same lineup shape, two ships were banned in nearly every match, the first battle of a series decided it 49 times out of 55, and the final weekend was the closest of the four.
The standard lineup: 3 destroyers, 3 cruisers, 2 battleships
156 of the 250 lineups (62%) were exactly 3 DD / 3 CA / 2 BB. The next most common shape, 3 DD / 4 CA / 1 BB, appeared 29 times.
| Lineup shape | Lineups | Share | Battle record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 DD / 3 CA / 2 BB | 156 | 62% | 77–79 |
| 3 DD / 4 CA / 1 BB | 29 | 12% | 16–13 |
| 4 DD / 3 CA / 1 BB | 20 | 8% | 13–7 |
| 3 DD / 2 CA / 3 BB | 15 | 6% | 8–7 |
| 2 DD / 4 CA / 2 BB | 10 | 4% | 4–6 |
| 4 DD / 2 CA / 2 BB | 9 | 4% | 4–5 |
11 more lineups used rarer shapes (fewer than 5 times each). Record = battles won–lost by the side using that shape.
Where the two sides differed, the side with more destroyers won 25 of 40 battles, and the side with more battleships won only 24 of 60. Treat that as a hint, not a rule: the teams that deviate from the standard are not a random sample.
The ships everyone brings
7 ships sit in at least 40% of all lineups: Velos (64% of lineups), Wisconsin (57% of lineups), Somme (53% of lineups), Dm. Donskoi (47% of lineups), Dalian (46% of lineups), Tulsa (42% of lineups), Z-46 (41% of lineups). The win rate below only counts battles where one side had the ship. When both teams bring Velos, one of them is guaranteed to lose with it, which drags every popular ship toward 50% and says nothing about the ship.
| Ship | Class | Lineups | Pick rate | Record (one side only) | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velos | Destroyer | 160 | 64% | 40–22 | 65% |
| Wisconsin | Battleship | 142 | 57% | 47–33 | 59% |
| Somme | Destroyer | 132 | 53% | 35–31 | 53% |
| Dm. Donskoi | Cruiser | 117 | 47% | 38–31 | 55% |
| Dalian | Cruiser | 115 | 46% | 38–31 | 55% |
| Tulsa | Cruiser | 104 | 42% | 32–32 | 50% |
| Z-46 | Destroyer | 102 | 41% | 20–32 | 38% |
| Johan de Witt | Cruiser | 65 | 26% | 26–29 | 47% |
| Marceau | Destroyer | 61 | 24% | 22–17 | 56% |
| Christopher | Destroyer | 60 | 24% | 30–20 | 60% |
| Petropavlovsk | Cruiser | 56 | 22% | 24–28 | 46% |
| Marco Polo | Battleship | 43 | 17% | 28–13 | 68% |
| Minegumo | Destroyer | 41 | 16% | 26–11 | 70% |
| Brindisi | Cruiser | 40 | 16% | 21–11 | 66% |
| Scarlet Thunder | Battleship | 40 | 16% | 15–15 | 50% |
| Lushun | Destroyer | 39 | 16% | 15–10 | 60% |
| Dewa | Battleship | 39 | 16% | 22–13 | 63% |
| Småland | Destroyer | 39 | 16% | 11–20 | 35% |
| Temeraire | Battleship | 38 | 15% | 14–24 | 37% |
| Flying Dutchman | Cruiser | 32 | 13% | 13–15 | 46% |
| Michelangelo | Cruiser | 28 | 11% | 17–11 | 61% |
| Ferrante Gonzaga | Cruiser | 28 | 11% | 6–16 | 27% |
| Laffey | Destroyer | 27 | 11% | 5–16 | 24% |
| Indiana | Battleship | 25 | 10% | 12–13 | 48% |
| Delaware | Battleship | 22 | 9% | 6–12 | 33% * |
| Meteor | Destroyer | 22 | 9% | 8–12 | 40% |
| Buffalo | Cruiser | 22 | 9% | 6–14 | 30% |
| Cambridge | Cruiser | 20 | 8% | 6–14 | 30% |
Ships fielded at least 20 times. * fewer than 20 one-sided battles: a few results either way would move it a lot. Pick rate = share of the 250 lineups.
What stands out
- Marco Polo is the standout battleship: 28–13 when only one side had it, from a 17% pick rate. Wisconsin, the default battleship, went 47–33.
- Among destroyers, Minegumo (26–11) and Velos (40–22) have the best records; among cruisers, Brindisi (21–11) and Michelangelo (17–11).
- Z-46 is in 41% of lineups but only 20–32 when unmatched, the biggest gap between popularity and results among the core picks.
- At the bottom: Elbing (3–14), Laffey (5–16), Ferrante Gonzaga (6–16), Cambridge (6–14), Buffalo (6–14), Lepanto (5–11), Delaware (6–12).
A ship’s record is partly the record of the teams that sail it. If the strongest teams favour a ship, it will look strong. With 125 battles there is no way to fully separate the two.
Bans: two ships are effectively gone
Each team bans two ships before a match. Across the 55 matches with revealed bans, Lushun was banned in 53 (by both teams in 37 of them) and Michelangelo in 52. That is why Lushun shows up in only 16% of lineups and Michelangelo in 11%: they are rarely available.
| Ship | Class | Bans | Matches banned in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lushun | Destroyer | 90 | 53 of 55 |
| Michelangelo | Cruiser | 77 | 52 of 55 |
| Wisconsin | Battleship | 15 | 14 of 55 |
| Dm. Donskoi | Cruiser | 6 | 6 of 55 |
| Dalian | Cruiser | 5 | 5 of 55 |
| Z-46 | Destroyer | 4 | 4 of 55 |
| Johan de Witt | Cruiser | 4 | 4 of 55 |
| Velos | Destroyer | 3 | 3 of 55 |
Ships banned fewer than 3 times are left out.
Of the 104 times a team chose its two bans, 90 included Lushun, 77 included Michelangelo, and 64 were exactly that pair. Spending both bans there leaves Wisconsin, Velos and the rest of the core free for the opponent.
Maps: the first battle decides the series
Every group match played the same pull: Sleeping Giant first, Sea of Fortune second and Northern Waters only as the decider. Whoever won on Sleeping Giant went on to win the match 49 times out of 55, and 40 of 55 matches ended 2–0, so Northern Waters was played just 15 times.
Sleeping Giant (55 battles)
| Ship | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Blücher | 9–2 | 82% |
| Marco Polo | 11–4 | 73% |
| Minegumo | 11–5 | 69% |
| Marceau | 11–5 | 69% |
| Brindisi | 7–4 | 64% |
| Dalian | 19–11 | 63% |
| Velos | 15–9 | 62% |
| Somme | 21–13 | 62% |
| Scarlet Thunder | 6–4 | 60% |
| Flying Dutchman | 10–7 | 59% |
| Lushun | 7–5 | 58% |
| Dewa | 11–8 | 58% |
| Christopher | 13–10 | 57% |
| Wisconsin | 20–17 | 54% |
| Petropavlovsk | 12–11 | 52% |
| Tulsa | 15–14 | 52% |
| Dm. Donskoi | 14–14 | 50% |
| Indiana | 5–5 | 50% |
| Johan de Witt | 10–13 | 43% |
| Temeraire | 7–10 | 41% |
| Meteor | 4–6 | 40% |
| Victoria | 4–7 | 36% |
| Z-46 | 8–15 | 35% |
| Småland | 5–10 | 33% |
| Laffey | 3–7 | 30% |
| Buffalo | 3–7 | 30% |
| Ferrante Gonzaga | 3–10 | 23% |
Sea of Fortune (55 battles)
| Ship | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Polo | 16–4 | 80% |
| Velos | 21–6 | 78% |
| Minegumo | 13–6 | 68% |
| Dewa | 8–4 | 67% |
| Christopher | 14–8 | 64% |
| Brindisi | 12–7 | 63% |
| Wisconsin | 20–13 | 61% |
| Michelangelo | 10–7 | 59% |
| Dm. Donskoi | 19–14 | 58% |
| Dalian | 17–13 | 57% |
| Johan de Witt | 15–12 | 56% |
| Indiana | 6–7 | 46% |
| Z-46 | 10–12 | 45% |
| Tulsa | 11–14 | 44% |
| Petropavlovsk | 10–13 | 43% |
| Somme | 10–13 | 43% |
| Cambridge | 4–6 | 40% |
| Marceau | 6–10 | 38% |
| Temeraire | 6–12 | 33% |
| Småland | 4–8 | 33% |
| Scarlet Thunder | 4–9 | 31% |
Ships with at least 10 one-sided battles on that map, best record first.
Northern Waters (15 battles)
| Ship | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Scarlet Thunder | 5–2 | 71% |
| Marceau | 5–2 | 71% |
| Wisconsin | 7–3 | 70% |
| Dm. Donskoi | 5–3 | 62% |
| Tulsa | 6–4 | 60% |
| Somme | 4–5 | 44% |
| Velos | 4–7 | 36% |
| Petropavlovsk | 2–4 | 33% |
| Z-46 | 2–5 | 29% |
| Dalian | 2–7 | 22% |
| Marco Polo | 1–5 | 17% |
The decider: ships with at least 6 one-sided battles. Too few battles for more than a hint.
Why there is no spawn-side stat
In the group stage the team listed first always takes the top slot in the Training Room, so it keeps the same spawn for the whole match. It would be natural to compare top-spawn and bottom-spawn win rates, but the team listed first is also always the higher seed in its group (56 of 56 fixtures), and the higher seed won 43 of 55 matches. Spawn side and team strength are completely tangled, so any spawn number would really be a seeding number.
The final weekend: the closest of the four
The last weekend of the group stage (9–11 October, 12 matches) settled the knockout seeding, and it played very differently from the first three.
- 6 of 12 matches went to a third game, against 9 of 43 before it.
- 3 teams came back after losing the first battle (EERIE against ALTA, L86 against DF, LRDM against TFLN); the first three weekends had 3 comebacks between them.
- Upsets. Measured by points a match going into the weekend:
- EERIE beat ALTA 2–1. ALTA came in averaging 1.5 points a match, EERIE 0.0.
- SOA beat WAS 2–1. WAS came in averaging 3.0 points a match, SOA 1.5.
- LRDM beat TFLN 2–1. TFLN came in averaging 2.0 points a match, LRDM 0.0.
It moved the table in 2 groups, which reshuffled the knockout seeding: Group B: BETEP 2nd (was 3rd), SOA 3rd (was 2nd); Group D: LRDM 4th (was 5th), BOFW 5th (was 4th). And it decided who goes out: APACT and BOFW finished last in the two five-team groups and are the only teams not in the Round of 32.
What the teams sailed
34 of the weekend’s 60 lineups (57%) were the standard 3 / 3 / 2, a little less than the 62% across the whole group stage. The picks that moved most compared with the first three weekends:
| Ship | Final weekend | Weekends 1–3 | Change (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temeraire | 28% | 11% | +17 |
| Velos | 75% | 61% | +14 |
| Minegumo | 25% | 14% | +11 |
| Petropavlovsk | 30% | 20% | +10 |
| Lushun | 7% | 18% | −12 |
| Z-46 | 32% | 44% | −12 |
| Scarlet Thunder | 7% | 19% | −12 |
Pick rate = share of lineups (60 on the final weekend, 190 before it). Ships at 15%+ in either period that moved at least 9 points.
The bans barely moved: Lushun was in 20 of the weekend’s 22 team ban choices and Michelangelo in 18. The one change was Wisconsin, banned 15 times in the first three weekends and 0 times on the last.
What changes in the knockouts
- New maps. The Round of 32 through the semifinals draw from Land of Fire, Greece, Hotspot, Warrior's Path, North. The final and the 3rd-place match draw from Riposte, Mountain Range, Two Brothers, Tears of the Desert, Crash Zone. None of them were played in the groups, so the map tables above will not carry over.
- Map bans. Each team bans one map from the pool of five, and the three left are played in order: the first two maps twice each, the third as the decider.
- Bo5 with alternating spawns. Teams swap sides every battle, so each map is played from both spawns. That will make it possible to measure spawn side for the first time.
- More data per series. Up to five battles per match instead of two or three, so ship records will firm up quickly.
How these numbers were made
Every figure comes from the match reports on the Ocean Cup 6 page: the eight ships each side fielded in each battle, who won each battle, and the revealed bans. They cover all 55 group matches that were played (STAL v APACT was a forfeit: it counts in the standings but has no battles). Upsets are judged on each team’s record going into the final weekend, not on its final seed, because the final seeds come from these same results. The analysis is at the tournament level only: it does not include player names and never pairs players with ships.
Follow the knockouts on the Ocean Cup 6 page: the bracket, match lineups, bans, map bans and the pick’em.