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Tournament analysis · Ocean Cup 6

Ocean Cup 6 Knockouts: Update Through the Quarterfinals

27 more matches, 91 more battles, and an update to the numbers we started in the group stage piece.

Ocean Cup 6 is down to four: CRD v PAIN and RSFX v TFKN in the semifinals. The knockouts tightened the meta: the standard lineup got more common, the core ships got picked even more, and Marco Polo went from a strong pick to the best battleship in the event.

The numbers so far

Tracked statGroupsKnockoutsOverall
Matches played552782
Battles12591216
Different ships fielded816483
Matches won without dropping a battle40 (73%)20 (74%)60 (73%)
Winner of battle 1 won the match49 of 5523 of 2772 of 82
Standard 3 DD / 3 CA / 2 BB lineups62%69%65%
Matches with Lushun banned53 of 5527 of 2780 of 82
Matches with Michelangelo banned52 of 5525 of 2777 of 82

Knockouts run through the quarterfinals. 1 knockout walkover is left out, as the group stage forfeit was, because it has no battles. Ban counts are matches with revealed bans.

Longer series didn’t make matches closer. 20 of 27 knockout matches ended 3–0, and the team that won battle 1 went on to win 23. Only 4 came back from losing the opener.

The ships: same core, sharper edges

ShipPick rate, groupsPick rate, knockoutsKnockout recordOverall recordOverall win rate
Velos64%75%21–1361–3564%
Somme53%68%26–1761–4856%
Wisconsin57%58%25–1872–5159%
Dm. Donskoi47%55%30–1668–4759%
Dalian46%43%29–1567–4659%
Tulsa42%47%21–2553–5748%
Z-4641%34%17–3237–6437%
Johan de Witt26%51%23–2549–5448%
Marco Polo17%34%32–1160–2471%
Christopher24%19%12–2242–4250%
Minegumo16%29%24–1450–2567%
Petropavlovsk22%20%17–1241–4051%
Marceau24%14%11–1133–2854%

Ships in at least 20% of all 432 lineups. As before, records only count battles where one side had the ship, because when both teams bring it one of them has to lose.

Bans: still two ships

Lushun was banned in all 27 knockout matches and Michelangelo in 25 of 27. A ban only stops the opponent, so a team that bans Lushun while the other side doesn’t keeps it for itself. That happened in 6 of the 27 matches, and it’s the only way Lushun got on the water: 21 lineups, all from the team that banned it, with a 16–5 record. Teams that leave it open are paying for it.

Maps and the first spawn-side numbers

MapBattlesTimes bannedSlot 1 record
Land of Fire321116–16
Hotspot29918–11
Greece171710–7
Warrior's Path1378–5

Slot = Training Room team slot, which swaps every battle. Each team bans one of the five maps, and the rest are played in pool order.

We said alternating spawns would let us measure spawn side for the first time. Slot 1 won 52 of 91 (57%). That leans towards slot 1, but with 91 battles the margin is about 10 points either way, so it’s well within chance. Hotspot (18–11) is the one to watch, though one map is too small a sample to call.

What’s left

The semifinals are still on the five-map pool. The final and the 3rd-place match move to Riposte, Mountain Range, Two Brothers, Tears of the Desert, Crash Zone, so the map table above won’t carry over.

How these numbers were made

Every figure comes from the match reports on the Ocean Cup 6 page: the ships each side fielded, who won each battle, and the revealed bans. The analysis is at the tournament level only: it does not include player names and never pairs players with ships.

Follow the rest on the Ocean Cup 6 page: the bracket, match lineups, bans, map bans and the pick’em.