Mega Santa '23 odds: 95 ships, tiers V to VIII, up to 5%

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Mega Santa '23

16 official reward rows · guaranteed rewards

Bundle oddsYour chances of new ships across a 10× / 20× crate pack

Sign in as a Supporter to see your personalized odds of pulling 0, 1, 2, or 3+ new ships from a bundle - plus the odds of specific ship pairings.

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Listed oddsper pull, recursive through nested containers · same for every player

30%

Promotion Orders

24%

Camouflage

climbs as you collect

14.95%

Global XP

13.27%

Premium ship

95 ships · climbs as you collect

6.37%

Insignia

5.02%

Doubloons

1.37%

Commendation

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Listed Generalized odds · all 16 reward rows Same odds for every player

25%12 Promotion Order
24%23 Holiday camos
14.95%40000 Global XP
5%30 Promotion Order
5%1 Insignia
2-5%2 Commendation
5%2023 doubloons
1.367%3 Insignia
1.367%6 Commendation
0.14% – 3.167%3.167% bucket of 22; climbs from 0.14% to 3.167% as you collect the othersTier V Premium ship

V Graf SpeeV GallantV MolotovV ExeterV P. E. FriedrichV MonaghanV DunkerqueV T-61V De GrasseV West VirginiaV CaliforniaV WarspiteV Admiral MakarovV ArizonaV HyūgaV Duca d'AostaV LeoneV LondonV AnshanV HuangheV MutsuV Hyūga Winter

Bundle10×: 27.52%20×: 47.46%at least one of these 22 ships · a specific one: 1.44% / 2.88% · pool-aware
0.12% – 4%4% bucket of 32; climbs from 0.12% to 4% as you collect the othersTier VI Premium ship

VI FlintVI BoiseVI KiddVI SimsVI StrasbourgVI AbruzziVI Le TerribleVI PoltavaVI OrkanVI IndianapolisVI BenhamVI GoriziaVI Charles F. HughesVI NelsonVI AsashioVI CossackVI LeningradVI AshitakaVI CharlemagneVI MünchenVI ÖlandVI BłyskawicaVI Duke of YorkVI Z-39VI HoodVI ScharnhorstVI CheshireVI Tiger '59VI AtlantaVI FloridaVI Algérie WinterVI L. Maass Winter

Bundle10×: 33.52%20×: 55.8%at least one of these 32 ships · a specific one: 1.25% / 2.5% · pool-aware
0.17% – 5%5% bucket of 29; climbs from 0.17% to 5% as you collect the othersTier VII Premium ship

VII MassachusettsVII Belfast '43VII BayardVII SuzuyaVII ZF-6VII AzumaVII MainzVII RomaVII TirpitzVII AtagoVII AlabamaVII Prinz EugenVII GeorgiaVII WichitaVII OdinVII ChampagneVII PlymouthVII SiegfriedVII BrandenburgVII P. BagrationVII LoyangVII Paolo EmilioVII MonarchVII FrieslandVII FlandreVII GascogneVII BlackVII KiiVII Georgia Winter

Bundle10×: 40.13%20×: 64.15%at least one of these 29 ships · a specific one: 1.72% / 3.45% · pool-aware
0.5% – 1%1% bucket of 2; climbs from 0.5% to 1% as you collect the othersTier VIII Premium ship

VIII MusashiVIII République

Bundle10×: 9.56%20×: 18.21%at least one of these 2 ships · a specific one: 4.99% / 9.95% · pool-aware
0.01% – 0.1%0.1% bucket of 10; climbs from 0.01% to 0.1% as you collect the othersSuperprize: Premium Ship

VI BelfastVII Jean BartVII OchakovVII KutuzovVI OgnevoiVII WeimarVI Yukikaze⭐ StalingradVII LionVII Kirisame

Bundle10×: 1%20×: 1.98%at least one of these 10 ships · a specific one: 0.1% / 0.2% · pool-aware
0.011% – 0.033%0.033% bucket of 3; climbs from 0.011% to 0.033% as you collect the othersSuperprize: Commander Items

- 160x Promotion Orders- 10x Insignia- 30x Commendations
0.017%Superprize: 100,000 Doubloons

Container rules (from WG)

Already own it? That ship leaves this container's drop pool

If you already own a ship or Commander that can drop from this container, that item will be removed from the possible drops. This container uses a guaranteed rewards system. You are guaranteed to receive a Premium ship from the Tier V, VI, and VII categories in your 30th container if you were unlucky. This does not include Tier VIII or Superprize ships. Each time you receive a ship from this container, the guarantee counter resets. The guaranteed drop can occur as long as there are still ships that you don't have.

GamingDiver does not yet track how many of this crate you have opened, so the guaranteed-reward counters above are not factored into the personalized odds shown on ship pages. Treat the percentages as the per-pull bucket math; the guaranteed reward kicks in over a longer horizon.

Best-case pulls

0.017%Superprize: 100,000 Doubloons0.17% in a 10× pack · 0.34% in 20×
0.033%Superprize: Commander Items0.33% in a 10× pack · 0.66% in 20×

Per-crate chance, then the chance of seeing it at least once across a pack. Rows WG marks as a Superprize, plus outsized currency drops.

Effective ship odds, including nested containers

0.5%MusashiTier VIII Premium ship
0.5%RépubliqueTier VIII Premium ship
0.172414%AlabamaTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%AtagoTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%AzumaTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%BayardTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%Belfast '43Tier VII Premium ship
0.172414%BlackTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%BrandenburgTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%ChampagneTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%FlandreTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%FrieslandTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%GascogneTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%GeorgiaTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%Georgia WTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%KiiTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%LoyangTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%MainzTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%MassachusettsTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%MonarchTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%OdinTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%Paolo EmilioTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%PlymouthTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%Prinz EugenTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%Pyotr BagrationTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%RomaTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%SiegfriedTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%SuzuyaTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%TirpitzTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%WichitaTier VII Premium ship
0.172414%ZF-6Tier VII Premium ship
0.143955%AnshanTier V Premium ship

+ 63 more effective ship odds rows in the source graph.

Mega Santa '23 odds

Mega Santa '23

Resolved possible ships

Best-case pulls