Personalized Your odds
See odds tuned to your roster
The listed odds above assume a fresh account. Once you sign in and upload your battle data we recompute every ship-pool bucket as if Wargaming had removed the ships you already own from the draw — your real per-pull rate for a new ship is usually a lot higher than the listed range.
Listed Generalized odds · all 20 reward rows
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15%1 Santa Level 4 Crate
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10%10 Promotion Orders
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9.47%10 days of Premium Account
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9.16%25,000 Global XP
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9.16%2,000,000 Credits
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6.67%1 Commendation
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5%1 Santa Level 5 Crate
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5%20 Promotion Orders
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5%1 Insignia
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0.22% – 4.85%4.85% bucket of 22; climbs from 0.22% to 4.85% as you collect the othersTier V Premium shipGraf SpeeGallantMolotovExeterP. E. FriedrichMonaghanDunkerqueT-61De GrasseWest VirginiaCaliforniaWarspiteAdmiral MakarovArizonaDuca d'AostaLeoneAnshanHuangheMutsuHyūga WinterAigleGuépard Winter
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4.37%2024 doubloons
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3.06%15 Holiday camos
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3.06%15 Santa in Red camos
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3.05%15 Santa in Blue camos
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0.086% – 3%3% bucket of 35; climbs from 0.086% to 3% as you collect the othersTier VI Premium ship
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0.057% – 2%2% bucket of 35; climbs from 0.057% to 2% as you collect the othersTier VII Premium ship
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1%2 Insignia
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1%4 Commendation
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0.01% – 0.1%0.1% bucket of 10; climbs from 0.01% to 0.1% as you collect the othersTier VIII Premium ship
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0.0045% – 0.05%0.05% bucket of 11; climbs from 0.0045% to 0.05% as you collect the othersSuperprize: Premium Ship
Container rules (from WG)
If you already own a ship that can drop from this container, this ship will be removed from the possible drops. This container uses a guaranteed reward system. If you haven't received a Premium ship listed in the Tier V, VI, VII, or VIII categories from your last 39 Santa Level 3 crates opened, then you are guaranteed to receive one of the Premium ships listed in the Tier V, VI, VII, or VIII categories above in the next (40th) Santa Level 3 crate you open. If you already own all the Premium ships that the guaranteed reward system can drop (i.e. all Premium ships from the Tier V, VI, VII, and VIII categories in the Santa Level 3 crate), then the guaranteed reward system will no longer apply.
GamingDiver does not yet track how many of this crate you have opened, so the guaranteed-reward counters above are not factored into the personalized odds shown on ship pages. Treat the percentages as the per-pull bucket math; the guaranteed reward kicks in over a longer horizon.
Resolved possible ships
Effective ship odds, including nested containers
- 0.202083%AigleTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%AnshanTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%ArizonaTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%CaliforniaTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%De GrasseTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%Duca d'AostaTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%DunkerqueTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%ExeterTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%GallantTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%Graf SpeeTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%GuépardTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%Guépard WTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%HuangheTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%HyūgaTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%Hyūga WTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%LeoneTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%MakarovTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%MolotovTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%MonaghanTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%MutsuTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%Prinz Eitel FriedrichTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%T-61Tier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%WarspiteTier V Premium ship
- 0.202083%West VirginiaTier V Premium ship
- 0.083333%AbruzziTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%AlgérieTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%Algérie WTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%AsashioTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%AshitakaTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%AtlantaTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%BenhamTier VI Premium ship
- 0.083333%BoiseTier VI Premium ship
+ 388 more effective ship odds rows in the source graph.
